Pemilihan Indeks Enso Sebagai Indikator Untuk Deteksi Dini Kekeringan Pada Padi Sawah

Elza Surmaini

Abstract


Salah satu pendekatan yang dapat digunakan mendeteksi dini dampak kekeringan adalah menggunakan indeks El-Ni Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Indeks ENSO telah banyak digunakan sebagai alat penting dalam pengelolaan ketahanan pangan di berbagai negara. Terdapat beberapa indeks yang digunakan untuk mendefinisikan ENSO, namun tidak ada konsesus diantara para pakar tentang indeks yang terbaik untuk mendeteksi kekeringan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memilih indeks ENSO yang paling akurat untuk deteksi dini kekeringan pada pertanaman padi sawah pada musim kemarau (MK)1 dan MK2. Kerusakan tanaman padi akibat kekeringan diukur menggunakan Indeks Dampak Kekeringan Padi (IDKP). Telekoneksi antara ENSO dengan kekeringan padi dianalisis menggunakan persamaan regresi polynomial antara sepuluh indeks ENSO dengan IDKP. Terlebih dahulu, diuji hubungan antara faktor perantaranya. Pertama, asosiasi antara beberapa indeks ENSO dengan SPI sebagai indeks kekeringan meteorologis. Kedua, asosiasi antara SPI dan IDKP sebagai indeks kekeringan agronomis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hubungan IDKP dengan indeks ENSO dapat dijelaskan dengan baik melalui faktor perantaranya yaitu SPI. Indeks ENSO yang dapat menggambarkan kekeringan dengan baik adalah indeks Ni 3.4 pada lag 2. Lag 2 menunjukkan bahwa indeks Ni 3.4 Bulan Maret dan Juni dapat digunakan untuk deteksi dini kekeringan padi pada MK1 dan MK2.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.32679/jsda.v11i2.106

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